Peperzak L
National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management (RIKZ), PO Box 8039, NL-4330 EA Middelburg, The Netherlands.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;51(5):31-6.
In temperate seas such as the North Sea harmful (toxic) algal blooms will probably increase as a result of climate change. This conclusion was reached after investigating the projected effect of climate change for the year 2100 in Dutch coastal waters (4 degrees C temperature rise and increased water column stratification) on the growth rates of six harmful and two non-harmful phytoplankton species. Micro algae form the basis of the marine food chain. However, toxin-producing species may seriously disrupt the food web and lead to fish kills and human intoxication. Two species with estimated doubled growth rates in 2100, F. japonica and C. antiqua, entered Europe via ship's ballast water or shellfish imports. This stresses the need to legally regulate such invasion routes in order to prevent the import of novel species. Future toxic phytoplankton blooms may further devaluate ecosystem deliverables such as fish production or recreational use. This devaluation can be estimated by monetary value assessments that are needed in cost-benefit analyses for policy guidance. The lack of understanding of future climate, ecosystem functioning and its response to climate change calls for a scientific effort to improve our knowledge on present day coastal ecosystem functioning and its resilience.
在北海等温带海域，有害（有毒）藻华可能会因气候变化而增加。这一结论是在研究了2100年气候变化对荷兰沿海水域（水温上升4摄氏度，水柱分层加剧）对六种有害和两种无害浮游植物物种生长率的预测影响后得出的。微藻构成了海洋食物链的基础。然而，产毒物种可能会严重扰乱食物网，导致鱼类死亡和人类中毒。两种预计在2100年生长率翻倍的物种，即日本海链藻和古氏角毛藻，是通过船舶压载水或贝类进口进入欧洲的。这凸显了对这些入侵途径进行法律监管以防止新物种进口的必要性。未来有毒浮游植物藻华可能会进一步降低生态系统的产出价值，如鱼类产量或娱乐用途。这种价值降低可以通过成本效益分析中用于政策指导的货币价值评估来估算。对未来气候、生态系统功能及其对气候变化的反应缺乏了解，这就需要开展科学研究，以增进我们对当今沿海生态系统功能及其恢复力的认识。
