Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2012;29(10):1630-46. doi: 10.1080/19440049.2012.714079. Epub 2012 Aug 24.
Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change-according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario - on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984-2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.
两个水动力和生态模型被用来研究气候变化对北海初级生产力和有害藻类爆发的影响——根据 IPCC A1b 排放情景。这两个模型都受到大气场的驱动，这些大气场是由通用环流模型的区域降尺度得到的，用于比较两组代表当前气候（1984-2004 年）条件和 2040 年代的 20 年模拟。这两个模型都表明，北海将整体变暖 0.8°C，到 2040 年代略有淡化。模型表明，与西部相比，北海东部将经历更多的温度和盐度变化。此外，模型的生态模块表明，海洋变暖将导致春季开花稍早。其中一个模型还计算了四种不同浮游植物群的分布，表明甲藻的丰度增加，而硅藻、鞭毛藻和褐藻的丰度与当前水平相当，或者减少。假设沟鞭藻属的丰度会像模型中模拟的甲藻群一样增加，那么到 2040 年，沟鞭藻属的爆发可能会更频繁地发生在北海。然而，贝类毒性的影响仍不清楚。
