Cairns B J, Pollett P K
Department of Mathematics, The University of Queensland, Qld 4072, Australia.
Theor Popul Biol. 2005 Aug;68(2):77-90. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2005.02.002.
We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off.
我们提供了一个通用框架，用于估计可能受灾难性事件影响且无界或上限非常大的种群中的持久性。我们使用一个经过修改的生死过程对种群进行建模，以允许任意大小的向下跳跃。对于此类过程，通常有必要截断该过程，以便在计算上可行地评估预期灭绝时间（以及高阶矩）。因此，我们特别关注截断过程的截止点的选择，并提出一种简单方法来获得所选截止点适用性的定量指标。
