Seasonality and children's blood lead levels: developing a predictive model using climatic variables and blood lead data from Indianapolis, Indiana, Syracuse, New York, and New Orleans, Louisiana (USA).

On a community basis, urban soil contains a potentially large reservoir of accumulated lead. This study was undertaken to explore the temporal relationship between pediatric blood lead (BPb), weather, soil moisture, and dust in Indianapolis, Indiana; Syracuse, New York; and New Orleans, Louisiana. The Indianapolis, Syracuse, and New Orleans pediatric BPb data were obtained from databases of 15,969, 14,467, and 2,295 screenings, respectively, collected between December 1999 and November 2002, January 1994 and March 1998, and January 1998 and May 2003, respectively. These average monthly child BPb levels were regressed against several independent variables: average monthly soil moisture, particulate matter < 10 microm in diameter (PM10), wind speed, and temperature. Of temporal variation in urban children's BPb, 87% in Indianapolis (R2 = 0.87, p = 0.0004), 61% in Syracuse (R2 = 0.61, p = 0.0012), and 59% in New Orleans (R2 = 0.59, p = 0.0000078) are explained by these variables. A conceptual model of urban Pb poisoning is suggested: When temperature is high and evapotranspiration maximized, soil moisture decreases and soil dust is deposited. Under these combined weather conditions, Pb-enriched PM10 dust disperses in the urban environment and causes elevated Pb dust loading. Thus, seasonal variation of children's Pb exposure is probably caused by inhalation and ingestion of Pb brought about by the effect of weather on soils and the resulting fluctuation in Pb loading.