Khorashadi Ahmad, Niemeier Debbie, Shankar Venky, Mannering Fred
California Department of Transportation, Traffic Operations/Traffic Safety Research, Room 4500, Sacramento, CA 95814, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2005 Sep;37(5):910-21. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2005.04.009.
This study explores the differences between urban and rural driver injuries (both passenger-vehicle and large-truck driver injuries) in accidents that involve large trucks (in excess of 10,000 pounds). Using 4 years of California accident data, and considering four driver-injury severity categories (no injury, complaint of pain, visible injury, and severe/fatal injury), a multinomial logit analysis of the data was conducted. Significant differences with respect to various risk factors including driver, vehicle, environmental, road geometry and traffic characteristics were found to exist between urban and rural models. For example, in rural accidents involving tractor-trailer combinations, the probability of drivers' injuries being severe/fatal increased about 26% relative to accidents involving single-unit trucks. In urban areas, this same probability increased nearly 700%. In accidents where alcohol or drug use was identified as being the primary cause of the accident, the probability of severe/fatal injury increased roughly 250% percent in rural areas and nearly 800% in urban areas. While many of the same variables were found to be significant in both rural and urban models (although often with quite different impact), there were 13 variables that significantly influenced driver-injury severity in rural but not urban areas, and 17 variables that significantly influenced driver-injury severity in urban but not rural areas. We speculate that the significant differences between rural and urban injury severities may be at least partially attributable to the different perceptual, cognitive and response demands placed on drivers in rural versus urban areas.
本研究探讨了在涉及大型卡车(超过10000磅)的事故中,城乡驾驶员受伤情况(包括乘用车和大型卡车驾驶员受伤)的差异。利用加利福尼亚州4年的事故数据,并考虑四种驾驶员伤害严重程度类别(无伤害、疼痛投诉、可见伤害和严重/致命伤害),对数据进行了多项logit分析。研究发现,城乡模型在包括驾驶员、车辆、环境、道路几何形状和交通特征等各种风险因素方面存在显著差异。例如,在涉及牵引挂车组合的农村事故中,驾驶员受重伤/致命伤的概率相对于涉及单辆卡车的事故增加了约26%。在城市地区,这一概率增加了近700%。在酒精或药物使用被确定为事故主要原因的事故中,农村地区严重/致命伤害的概率增加了约250%,城市地区增加了近800%。虽然在农村和城市模型中发现许多相同的变量具有显著性(尽管影响往往大不相同),但有13个变量在农村地区对驾驶员伤害严重程度有显著影响,在城市地区则不然,还有17个变量在城市地区对驾驶员伤害严重程度有显著影响,在农村地区则不然。我们推测,城乡伤害严重程度的显著差异可能至少部分归因于农村和城市地区对驾驶员不同的感知、认知和反应要求。