A dynamic model for assessing radiological consequences of routine releases in the Loire river: parameterisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis.

A dynamic model for assessing the transfer of several radionuclides ((58)Co, (60)Co, (110 m)Ag, (134)Cs, (137)Cs, (54)Mn and (131)I) in a food-chain was applied on the Loire river, where 14 nuclear power plants situated on five different sites operate. The model considers the following potential exposure pathways: (i) transfer of radionuclides through the aquatic food chain and the subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated water and/or fish; (ii) use of river water for agricultural purposes (irrigation), transfer of radionuclides through the terrestrial food chain and the subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated foodstuffs; (iii) internal exposure due to inhalation of dust originating from resuspension of contaminated soil particles; (iv) external exposure from radionuclides present in the river or deposited on the river sediments or the soil. For each of the parameters introduced in this model, a probability density function, allowing further uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, was proposed. Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis were performed to: (i) compare calculations to empirical data; (ii) determine a confidence interval for the mean annual dose to critical groups; and (iii) identify the parameters responsible for the uncertainty and subsequent research priorities.