Polasek O, Kolcic I, Kolaric B, Rudan I
Department of Medical Statistics, Epidemiology and Medical Informatics, Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, Medical School, University of Zagreb, Croatia.
Hum Reprod. 2005 Sep;20(9):2489-91. doi: 10.1093/humrep/dei097. Epub 2005 Jun 24.
We have investigated sex ratio at birth (expressed as the proportion of males) in Croatia before, during and after the war (1991-1995).
Data for each of 21 counties in Croatia (861 516 births) were collected and pooled into two groups: the first, consisting of the counties unaffected by the war, and the second, comprising the counties affected by war events. Odds ratios of being born as a male were calculated, with being born in a county exposed to war defined as the risk factor.
No significant deviations from the expected ratio of 0.514 were found in pre-war, wartime or post-war period at the national level. The ratio was 0.515 during the pre-war and wartime periods, and 0.514 in the post-war period. Comparison of the ratios in the three periods in both affected and unaffected counties revealed no significant increase in the sex ratio. The only significant increase in the sex ratio was registered in two counties unaffected by the warfare.
This study indicates that warfare did not cause a detectable increase of the sex ratio at birth in Croatia, in contrast to what might have been predicted based on earlier reports in the literature.
我们调查了克罗地亚在战争期间（1991 - 1995年）及战前、战后的出生性别比（以男性比例表示）。
收集了克罗地亚21个县（共861516例出生）的数据，并汇总为两组：第一组为未受战争影响的县，第二组为受战争事件影响的县。计算出生为男性的比值比，将出生在受战争影响的县定义为风险因素。
在国家层面，战前、战时或战后期间，均未发现与预期的0.514比例有显著偏差。战前和战时该比例为0.515，战后为0.514。对受影响和未受影响县的三个时期的比例进行比较，未发现性别比有显著增加。性别比唯一显著增加的情况出现在两个未受战争影响的县。
本研究表明，与基于文献中早期报告可能做出的预测相反，战争并未导致克罗地亚出生性别比出现可检测到的增加。
