Suppr超能文献

克罗地亚地震和 COVID-19 大流行并发事件后出生的性别比。

Sex Ratio at Birth after Concurrent Events of Earthquakes and the COVID-19 Pandemic in Croatia.

机构信息

Department of Sociology, Faculty of Croatian Studies, University of Zagreb, Borongajska Cesta 83d, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2024 Apr 29;21(5):572. doi: 10.3390/ijerph21050572.

Abstract

The sex ratio at birth (ratio of males to females) has been known to be affected by exogenous shocks such as wars, pollution, natural catastrophes, economic crises, and others. Among these stressful events, both earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported to lower the sex ratio at birth. In this article, a rather unusual situation of two episodes of simultaneous events of COVID-19 lockdown and earthquakes approximately nine months apart (March and December of 2020) is investigated to assess whether they were associated with a bias in sex ratio at birth 3-5 months later (in utero loss) and 9 months later (loss at conception) in Croatia. The monthly time series of sex ratio at birth, total number of births, and total number of both male and female births from January 2010 to December 2021 were analyzed. Seasonally adjusted autoregressive moving-average models were used to estimate the functional form of the time series from January 2010 to February 2020. These results were used to predict the future values of the series until December 2021 and to compare them with the actual values. For all series used, there was no indication of deviation from the values predicted by the models, neither for 3-5 months nor for 9 months after the COVID-19 lockdown and earthquake events. The possible mechanisms of the absence of bias, such as the threshold of the stressful events and its localized reach, as well as the statistical methods employed, are discussed.

摘要

出生性别比(男性与女性的比例)已知受到外部冲击的影响,如战争、污染、自然灾害、经济危机等。在这些压力事件中,地震和 COVID-19 大流行都被报道会降低出生性别比。在本文中,研究了一种相当不寻常的情况,即 COVID-19 封锁和地震两个事件大约相隔九个月(2020 年 3 月和 12 月)同时发生,以评估它们是否与出生性别比(3-5 个月后妊娠丢失)和 9 个月后(受孕丢失)存在偏差有关在克罗地亚。分析了 2010 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月的出生性别比、总出生人数和男女出生人数的月度时间序列。使用季节性调整自回归移动平均模型来估计 2010 年 1 月至 2020 年 2 月的时间序列的函数形式。这些结果用于预测 2021 年 12 月之前的系列未来值,并将其与实际值进行比较。对于使用的所有系列,无论是在 COVID-19 封锁和地震事件发生后的 3-5 个月还是 9 个月,都没有迹象表明与模型预测值存在偏差。讨论了没有偏差的可能机制,例如压力事件的阈值及其局部范围,以及所采用的统计方法。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/336b/11121035/e245c2031d0d/ijerph-21-00572-g001.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验