Duintjer Tebbens Radboud J, Pallansch Mark A, Kew Olen M, Cáceres Victor M, Sutter Roland W, Thompson Kimberly M
KidsRisk Project, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2005 Aug 15;162(4):358-72. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwi206. Epub 2005 Jul 13.
Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the tradeoffs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different posteradication conditions. In this paper, the authors identify the issues related to prospective modeling of future outbreaks using such a model, including the reality that accurate prediction of conditions and associated model inputs prior to future outbreaks remains challenging. The authors explored the model's behavior in the context of three recent outbreaks resulting from importation of poliovirus into previously polio-free countries and found that the model reproduced reported data on the incidence of cases. The authors expect that this model can provide important insights into the dynamics of future potential poliomyelitis outbreaks and in this way serve as a useful tool for risk assessment.
在成功根除脊髓灰质炎后，政策制定者目前面临着有关管理脊髓灰质炎风险的不同策略之间权衡的重要问题。为了估计脊髓灰质炎病毒重新引入及由此引发疫情的潜在后果，作者开发了一种动态疾病传播模型，该模型可以模拟不同根除后条件下疫情的许多方面。在本文中，作者确定了使用这种模型对未来疫情进行前瞻性建模相关的问题，包括在未来疫情发生之前准确预测情况及相关模型输入仍然具有挑战性这一现实。作者在最近三起因脊髓灰质炎病毒输入到以前无脊髓灰质炎国家而引发的疫情背景下探索了该模型的行为，发现该模型再现了报告的病例发病率数据。作者预计，这个模型可以为未来潜在脊髓灰质炎疫情的动态变化提供重要见解，从而作为风险评估的有用工具。
