Duintjer Tebbens Radboud J, Kalkowsa Dominika A, Thompson Kimberly M
Kid Risk, Inc., Columbus, OH, USA.
Future Virol. 2018 Aug 10;13(9):617-628. doi: 10.2217/fvl-2018-0079.
Assess risks related to breaches of poliovirus containment.
Using a dynamic transmission model, we explore the variability among different populations in the vulnerability to poliovirus containment breaches as population immunity to transmission declines after oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation.
Although using OPV instead of wild poliovirus (WPV) seed strains for inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) production offers some expected risk reintroduction of live polioviruses from IPV manufacturing facilities, OPV seed strain releases may become a significant threat within 5-10 years of OPV cessation in areas most conducive to fecal-oral poliovirus transmission, regardless of IPV use.
Efforts to quantify the risks demonstrate the challenges associated with understanding and managing relatively low-probability and high-consequence containment failure events.
评估与脊髓灰质炎病毒 containment 突破相关的风险。
使用动态传播模型，我们探讨了随着口服脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗（OPV）停用后人群对传播的免疫力下降，不同人群在脊髓灰质炎病毒 containment 突破易感性方面的变异性。
尽管使用 OPV 而非野生脊髓灰质炎病毒（WPV）种子株生产灭活脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗（IPV）会带来一些预期的风险，即活脊髓灰质炎病毒从 IPV 生产设施中重新引入，但在最有利于脊髓灰质炎病毒粪口传播的地区，无论是否使用 IPV，OPV 种子株的释放可能在 OPV 停用后的 5 - 10 年内成为重大威胁。
量化风险的努力表明了在理解和管理相对低概率和高后果的 containment 失败事件方面存在的挑战。
