Stensgaard A, Jørgensen A, Kabatereine N B, Malone J B, Kristensen T K
Mandahl-Bart Research Centre for Biodiversity and Health in Developing Countries, DBL-Institute for Health Research and Development, Charlottenlund, Denmark.
Parassitologia. 2005 Mar;47(1):115-25.
The potential value of MODIS satellite sensor data on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land surface temperatures (LST) for describing the distribution of the Schistosoma mansoni-"Biomphalaria pfeifferi"/Biomphalaria sudanica parasite-snail system in inland Uganda, were tested by developing annual and seasonal composite models, and iteratively analysing for their relationship with parasite and snail distribution. The dry season composite model predicted an endemic area that produced the best fit with the distribution of schools with > or =5% prevalence. NDVI values of 151-174, day temperatures of 26-36 degrees C, and night temperatures of 15-20 degrees C were used as criteria for the prediction model. Using the same approach with host snail data indicated that most of Uganda is suitable "B. pfeifferi"/B. sudanica habitat, except for possibly the north-eastern region of the country. The parasite, however, appears to be restricted in its distribution in both the north-eastern and the south-western regions of Uganda. The absence of disease in the south-west can not be attributed to the absence of snail hosts. Results suggest a combination of satellite sensor data on temperature and standard climate data on precipitation, as the best ecological determinants of the S. mansoni-"B. pfeifferi"/B. sudanica system. Satellite composite models and logistic regression analysis, suggest low night time temperature as one of the significant factors inhibiting S. mansoni transmission in the south-western highland areas of Uganda. The developed models are, however, unique, representing species-specific ecologic preferences of the S. mansoni-"B. Pfeifferi"/B. sudanica system in inland Uganda. Further validation studies are needed to test the value of the model in other countries in East Africa.
通过建立年度和季节复合模型，并反复分析其与寄生虫和蜗牛分布的关系，测试了中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）卫星传感器数据在归一化植被指数（NDVI）和地表温度（LST）方面对于描述乌干达内陆曼氏血吸虫-费氏姜片吸虫/苏丹姜片吸虫寄生虫-蜗牛系统分布的潜在价值。旱季复合模型预测的流行区与患病率≥5%的学校分布最为吻合。预测模型的标准为NDVI值151 - 174、白天温度26 - 36摄氏度以及夜间温度15 - 20摄氏度。对宿主蜗牛数据采用相同方法表明，除该国东北部地区外，乌干达大部分地区都是费氏姜片吸虫/苏丹姜片吸虫的适宜栖息地。然而，寄生虫的分布似乎在乌干达的东北部和西南部地区受到限制。西南部没有疾病不能归因于没有蜗牛宿主。结果表明，卫星传感器的温度数据与标准气候降水数据相结合，是曼氏血吸虫-费氏姜片吸虫/苏丹姜片吸虫系统最佳的生态决定因素。卫星复合模型和逻辑回归分析表明，夜间低温是抑制乌干达西南部高地地区曼氏血吸虫传播的重要因素之一。然而，所建立的模型具有独特性，代表了乌干达内陆曼氏血吸虫-费氏姜片吸虫/苏丹姜片吸虫系统特定物种的生态偏好。需要进一步的验证研究来测试该模型在东非其他国家的价值。
