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比利时弗拉芒地区环形交叉路口对道路安全的影响。

Road safety effects of roundabouts in Flanders.

作者信息

De Brabander Bram, Nuyts Erik, Vereeck Lode

机构信息

Hasselt University, Faculty of Applied Economics, Agoralaan-Building D, B-3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.

出版信息

J Safety Res. 2005;36(3):289-96. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2005.05.001.

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

This paper analyzes the effect on road safety of 95 roundabouts that were built in Flanders between 1994 and 1999.

RESULTS

The study shows that the effect on the number and severity of road accidents adjusted for the trend and regression to the mean is significant, but varies considerably in accordance with the speed limit regime on the intersection. Roundabouts are most effective on intersections of a main road with a high speed limit (90 km/h) and an adjacent road with a lower speed limit (50 or 70 km/h). The empirical analysis reveals a reduction of 34% (varying between 15% and 59%) for the total number of injury accidents, 30% (7%-45%) for light injury accidents, and 38% (27%-72%) for serious injury accidents. This study also takes a closer look at the impact of different post-implementation periods using accident data of 1-, 3-, or 6-years after the construction of a roundabout on the calculated effectiveness results and warns for a severe underestimation when a one-year period is used.

IMPACT ON INDUSTRY

An effective traffic safety policy based on scientific results thus requires some patience from the policy-makers.

摘要

引言

本文分析了1994年至1999年间在法兰德斯建造的95个环形交叉路口对道路安全的影响。

结果

研究表明,经趋势调整和均值回归后,对道路事故数量和严重程度的影响是显著的,但根据交叉路口的限速制度有很大差异。环形交叉路口在主路限速较高(90公里/小时)且相邻道路限速较低(50或70公里/小时)的交叉路口最为有效。实证分析显示,受伤事故总数减少了34%(在15%至59%之间变化),轻伤事故减少了30%(7%至45%),重伤事故减少了38%(27%至72%)。本研究还利用环形交叉路口建成后1年、3年或6年的事故数据,更仔细地研究了不同实施后时期对计算出的有效性结果的影响,并警告使用1年期数据时会严重低估。

对行业的影响

基于科学结果的有效交通安全政策因此需要政策制定者有一定的耐心。

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