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环形交叉路口对骑自行车者交通安全的影响:一项观察性研究。

The effects of roundabouts on traffic safety for bicyclists: an observational study.

作者信息

Daniels Stijn, Nuyts Erik, Wets Geert

机构信息

Hasselt University, Transportation Research Institute, Wetenschapspark 5, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Mar;40(2):518-26. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.07.016. Epub 2007 Sep 14.

Abstract

A before-and-after study was carried out of injury accidents involving bicyclists on 91 roundabouts in Flanders-Belgium. The study design accounted for the effects of general safety trends and regression-to-the-mean, but could not take into account the possibility of specific changes in traffic volume at roundabouts. The conversion of intersections into roundabouts produces a significant 27% increase in the number of injury accidents involving bicyclists on or nearby the roundabouts. The increase is even higher for accidents involving fatal or serious injuries (41-46%). Compared to the proven favourable effects of roundabouts on safety in general, this result is unexpectedly poor. However, the effects of roundabouts on bicycle accidents differ depending on whether these roundabouts are built inside or outside built-up areas. When inside built-up areas, the construction of roundabouts increased the number of injury accidents involving bicyclists by 48%. For accidents causing fatal or serious injuries inside built-up areas, an average increase of 77% was found. However, outside built-up areas the zero-hypothesis of 'no safety effect for bicyclists' cannot be rejected (best estimate: +1% accidents, not significant). Roundabouts that replace traffic signals perform worse when compared to roundabouts at other types of intersections.

摘要

在比利时弗拉芒地区的91个环形交叉路口,针对涉及骑自行车者的伤害事故进行了一项前后对照研究。该研究设计考虑了总体安全趋势和均值回归的影响,但未能考虑环形交叉路口交通量发生特定变化的可能性。将十字路口改造成环形交叉路口后,环形交叉路口及其附近涉及骑自行车者的伤害事故数量显著增加了27%。涉及致命或重伤的事故增加幅度甚至更高(41%-46%)。与环形交叉路口总体上已证实的对安全的有利影响相比,这一结果出人意料地糟糕。然而,环形交叉路口对自行车事故的影响因这些环形交叉路口是建在建成区内还是建成区外而有所不同。建在建成区内时,环形交叉路口的建设使涉及骑自行车者的伤害事故数量增加了48%。对于在建成区内造成致命或重伤的事故,平均增加幅度为77%。然而,在建成区外,“对骑自行车者没有安全影响”的零假设不能被拒绝(最佳估计:事故增加1%,不显著)。与其他类型交叉路口的环形交叉路口相比,取代交通信号灯的环形交叉路口表现更差。

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