Leskinen Pekka, Kangas Jyrki
Finnish Forest Research Institute, Joensuu Research Centre, P.O. Box 68, FIN-80101 Joensuu, Finland.
J Environ Manage. 2005 Nov;77(3):244-51. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.03.008. Epub 2005 Jul 25.
The traditional assumption with multi-criteria natural resource management models is that the values of the decision alternatives with respect to one criterion can be assessed independently of the values of the decision alternatives with respect to other criteria. In practice, however, the assumption of independent decision criteria is not always realistic. For example, the importance of the amount of old forests to biodiversity may depend on the amount of dead wood. This paper shows how multi-criteria natural resource management problems can be analysed in a case involving dependent decision criteria. The proposed models are based on pair-wise comparisons of items in the ratio scale and statistical regression analysis of the pair-wise comparisons data. The basic idea behind the dependent models is to ask the decision maker (e.g. forest owner) to assess the decision alternatives or their characteristics simultaneously with respect to dependent decision criteria. The separate models for discrete and continuous cases are given, which enable the number of potential management alternatives to vary from a few to infinite. The models proposed allow a more realistic description of the decision problem in multi-criteria natural resource management.
多标准自然资源管理模型的传统假设是,决策备选方案在一个标准下的价值评估可以独立于其在其他标准下的价值评估。然而在实践中,决策标准独立性的假设并不总是现实的。例如,老龄林数量对生物多样性的重要性可能取决于枯木数量。本文展示了如何在一个涉及相关决策标准的案例中分析多标准自然资源管理问题。所提出的模型基于比率尺度中项目的成对比较以及成对比较数据的统计回归分析。相关模型背后的基本思想是要求决策者(如森林所有者)同时针对相关决策标准评估决策备选方案或其特征。给出了离散和连续情况的单独模型,这使得潜在管理备选方案的数量可以从几个变化到无穷多个。所提出的模型能更现实地描述多标准自然资源管理中的决策问题。