[A retrospective cohort study on the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus among formal plasma donors in central China].

OBJECTIVE

To study the time span from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection to full bloom AIDS and to death.

METHODS

Among formal plasma donors (FPD) from 2 counties in central China, 178 HIV cases were confirmed by western blot method but received no ARV treatment under a retrospective cohort study. Data on personal information, history on plasma donation, as well as dates regarding HIV diagnostic confirmation, onset of AIDS and death was collected through reviewing laboratory and medical records thus the course of disease for each case was identified. Incubation and survival time were calculated, using Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

The incubation period was 8.31 years on average (95% CI: 8.04 - 8.58 years). The cumulative incidence rate of AIDS was 6.41/100 person-years after HIV infection. The survival time was 9.90 (95% CI: 8.20 - 11.60) months after the onset of AIDS.

CONCLUSION

According to the findings from this study, the average incubation was shorter than 9.5 years which was reported by UNAIDS. Comparing with figures that had been reported by UNAIDS, AIDS incidence rate among this population was lower within 6 years but higher since the 7th year on after being infected but the survival time was shorter.