Chen Su-liang, Bai Guang-yi, Li Qiao-min, Li Bao-jun, Hui Yan-liang, Liang Liang, Wang Wei, Chen Zhi-qiang, Lu Xin-li, Wang Xiao-feng, Zhang Yu-qi, Zhao Hong-ru
Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang 050021, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2012 Apr;46(4):316-9.
To examine the state of incubation period and survival time of former commercial plasma donors (FCPDs) infected with HIV.
All objects infected with HIV were from Hebei province and found from general investigation for FCPDs in 1995. The infector cohort by 142 cases was used to estimate incubation period. In the infector cohort, the time which infectors entered the cohort was their infection time, which was the middle value of the origin date, which was January 1, 1995. The onset of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. End point of observation was Dec 31, 2010. There were 192 months in all from beginning to end. The AIDS cohort by 57 cases was used to estimate the survival of the patients. In the patient cohort, the time of AIDS onset was defined as the time entering the cohort, and death of AIDS was defined as an outcome event. The cumulative incidence ratio, cumulative mortality, illness intensity and mortality intensity were analyzed through Kaplan-Meier.
During the observation period, 123 cases of 142 infectors developed into AIDS, the cumulative incidence was 86.42% (123/142) and the intensity was 8.53/100 person-years and the median time of incubation period was 112.0 months (95%CI: 108.8 - 115.2). The death dates of 57 patients were from 1 to 24 months after onset. The cumulative mortality was 100%, and the intensity was 250.66/100 person-years and the median survival time was 3.0 months (95%CI: 1.8 - 4.2). It was estimated that the median time was 115.0 months (9.6 years) from infection to death.
The median times of incubation and median survival time were 112.0 and 3.0 months, respectively.
研究既往有偿献血浆者感染艾滋病病毒后的潜伏期及生存时间情况。
所有艾滋病病毒感染者均来自河北省，是1995年对既往有偿献血浆者进行普查时发现的。以142例感染者组成的队列来估计潜伏期。在感染者队列中，感染者进入队列的时间即为其感染时间，为起始日期（1995年1月1日）的中间值。将艾滋病发病定义为结局事件。观察终点为2010年12月31日。从开始到结束共192个月。以57例艾滋病患者组成的队列来估计患者的生存情况。在患者队列中，将艾滋病发病时间定义为进入队列的时间，将艾滋病死亡定义为结局事件。通过Kaplan-Meier法分析累积发病率、累积死亡率、发病强度和死亡强度。
观察期间，142例感染者中有123例发展为艾滋病，累积发病率为86.42%（123/142），发病强度为8.53/100人年，潜伏期中位数为112.0个月（95%可信区间：108.8 - 115.2）。57例患者的死亡时间为发病后1至24个月。累积死亡率为100%，死亡强度为250.66/100人年，生存时间中位数为3.0个月（95%可信区间：1.8 - 4.2）。估计从感染到死亡的中位时间为115.0个月（9.6年）。
潜伏期和生存时间中位数分别为112.0个月和3.0个月。
