Gandjour Afschin, Greb Juliette, Bomsdorf Eckart, Wilhelm Lauterbach Karl
Institute of Health Economics and Clinical Epidemiology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Appl Health Econ Health Policy. 2005;4(1):1-4. doi: 10.2165/00148365-200504010-00001.
While there are many international comparisons on the impact of demographic changes on future healthcare expenditures, there are few such comparisons with regard to the impact of demographic changes on future healthcare funding. The purpose of this article is to analyse the impact of demographic changes on healthcare expenditures and funding in 14 selected EU Member States. This article shows that in most countries, healthcare costs per worker are predicted to increase at a faster rate than per capita costs, because workers comprise a decreasing proportion of the total population. On the other hand, the impact of aging on healthcare payments per worker is about the same as healthcare costs per capita because citizens have to make out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Roughly one-quarter of the predicted income growth of the work-force will be used for aging-related healthcare payments.
虽然有许多关于人口结构变化对未来医疗支出影响的国际比较,但关于人口结构变化对未来医疗资金影响的此类比较却很少。本文的目的是分析14个选定欧盟成员国人口结构变化对医疗支出和资金的影响。本文表明,在大多数国家,预计每名工人的医疗成本增长速度将快于人均成本,因为工人在总人口中所占比例在下降。另一方面,老龄化对每名工人医疗支付的影响与人均医疗成本大致相同,因为公民必须自掏腰包支付医疗费用。预计劳动力收入增长的约四分之一将用于与老龄化相关的医疗支付。