Finlayson Gregory S, Stewart David, Tate Robert B, MacWilliam Leonard, Roos Noralou
Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, 727 McDermot Avenue, Suite 408, Winnipeg, MB, R3E 3P5, Canada.
Can J Aging. 2005 Spring;24 Suppl 1:133-40. doi: 10.1353/cja.2005.0045.
Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent 3-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.
能够预测未来对医疗服务的需求，这对卫生规划者来说是一项挑战。利用现有的人口预测数据，提出了两种模型来估计2020年曼尼托巴省各地区的医院床位需求。第一种是当前使用情况预测模型，它只是将最近3年的平均使用情况推算到未来。第二种是10年趋势分析，它使用泊松回归来预测未来需求。当前使用情况预测表明医院床位需求将大幅增加，而趋势分析则预测需求会下降。最后的预测与日间手术率的持续上升和住院时间的缩短相一致。在农村医院入住率相对较低以及先前关于急性护理医院住院适宜性的研究背景下，需要考虑当前使用情况预测。如果未来采取措施确保更合理地使用急性护理医院床位，那么当前使用情况预测的床位短缺就无需担忧。
