Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre (KCE), Doorbuilding, Boulevard du Jardin Botanique 55, 1000, Bruxelles, Belgium.
BMC Health Serv Res. 2019 Sep 5;19(1):637. doi: 10.1186/s12913-019-4500-8.
We examine the implications of reducing the average length of stay (ALOS) for a delivery on the required capacity in terms of service volume and maternity beds in Belgium, using administrative data covering all inpatient stays in Belgian general hospitals over the period 2003-2014.
A projection model generates forecasts of all inpatient and day-care services with a time horizon of 2025. It adjusts the observed hospital use in 2014 to the combined effect of three evolutions: the change in population size and composition, the time trend evolution of ALOS, and the time trend evolution of the admission rates. In addition, we develop an alternative scenario to evaluate the impact of an accelerated reduction of ALOS.
Between 2014 and 2025, we expect the number of deliveries to increase by 4.41%, and the number of stays in maternity services by 3.38%. At the same time, a reduction in ALOS is projected for all types of deliveries. The required capacity for maternity beds will decrease by 17%. In case of an accelerated reduction of the ALOS to reach international standards, this required capacity for maternity beds will decrease by more than 30%.
Despite an expected increase in the number of deliveries, future hospital capacity in terms of maternity beds can be considerably reduced in Belgium, due to the continuing reduction of ALOS.
本研究利用涵盖 2003 年至 2014 年期间所有比利时综合医院住院患者的行政数据，考察了降低分娩平均住院日（ALOS）对服务量和产科床位所需容量的影响。
预测模型生成了 2025 年所有住院和日间护理服务的预测。它将 2014 年的医院实际使用情况调整为三种演变的综合影响：人口规模和构成的变化、ALOS 的时间趋势演变以及入院率的时间趋势演变。此外，我们还开发了一个替代方案来评估加速降低 ALOS 的影响。
在 2014 年至 2025 年间，我们预计分娩数量将增加 4.41%，产科服务的住院次数将增加 3.38%。同时，预计所有类型的分娩的 ALOS 都会降低。产科床位的所需容量将减少 17%。如果 ALOS 加速降低以达到国际标准，那么产科床位的所需容量将减少 30%以上。
尽管预计分娩数量会增加，但由于 ALOS 的持续降低，比利时未来的产科床位医院容量可以大大减少。
