Lindgren Urban, Elmquist Helena
Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, Sweden.
Ambio. 2005 Jun;34(4-5):393-401. doi: 10.1639/0044-7447(2005)034[0393:eaeiod]2.0.co;2.
This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper.
本研究考察了可耕地农业中自然系统与人为系统之间的依存关系。该动态模拟模型的方法论源于环境系统分析和微观模拟的建模传统，它再现了物质流（如能源、物质、排放物和产品）、作为决策主体的农民以及影响农场的结构条件之间的相互联系。在运行该模型时，目的是回答以下问题：价格、补贴、农民的环境价值观以及农民在生产分配选择方面的技能变化对盈利能力和环境（即温室气体效应、富营养化、酸化和能源使用）有何影响？例如，模型模拟结果表明，在经济绩效方面，农民可以在两种相对可持续的策略之间做出选择——要么专门从事有机生产（从而受益于更高的补贴和产出价格），要么专注于传统种植并使用农药和化肥（从而受益于高产量）。在环境影响方面，由于粪便使用分配存在困难，有机农业和传统农业之间没有明显的界限。这一发现本质上与系统边界的选择有关，本文对此进行了深入讨论。
