Steyerberg Ewout W, Homs Marjolein Y V, Stokvis Annemieke, Essink-Bot Marie-Louise, Siersema Peter D
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Gastrointest Endosc. 2005 Sep;62(3):333-40. doi: 10.1016/s0016-5107(05)01587-7.
Brachytherapy was found to be preferable to metal stent placement for the palliation of dysphagia because of inoperable esophageal cancer in the randomized SIREC trial. The benefit of brachytherapy, however, only occurred after a relatively long survival. The objective is to develop a model that distinguishes patients with a poor prognosis from those with a relatively good prognosis.
Survival was analyzed with Cox regression analysis. Dysphagia-adjusted survival (alive with no or mild dysphagia) was studied with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Patient data is from the multicenter, randomized, controlled trial (SIREC, n = 209) and a consecutive series (n = 396). Patients received a stent or single-dose brachytherapy.
Significant prognostic factors for survival included tumor length, World Health Organization performance score, and the presence of metastases (multivariable p < 0.001). A simple score, which also included age and gender, could satisfactorily separate patients with a poor, intermediate, and relatively good prognosis within the SIREC trial. For the poor prognosis group, the difference in dysphagia-adjusted survival was 23 days in favor of stent placement compared with brachytherapy (77 vs. 54 days, p = 0.16). For the other prognostic groups, brachytherapy resulted in a better dysphagia-adjusted survival.
A simple prognostic score may help to identify patients with a poor prognosis in whom stent placement is at least equivalent to brachytherapy. If further validated, this score can provide an evidence-based tool for the selection of palliative treatment in esophageal cancer patients.
在随机对照的SIREC试验中,对于因无法手术的食管癌导致吞咽困难的患者,近距离放射治疗被发现比金属支架置入术更可取。然而,近距离放射治疗的益处仅在相对较长的生存期后才出现。目的是建立一个模型,区分预后较差的患者和预后相对较好的患者。
采用Cox回归分析对生存期进行分析。采用Kaplan-Meier分析研究吞咽困难调整后的生存期(无吞咽困难或轻度吞咽困难存活)。患者数据来自多中心随机对照试验(SIREC,n = 209)和一个连续系列(n = 396)。患者接受了支架置入或单剂量近距离放射治疗。
生存期的显著预后因素包括肿瘤长度、世界卫生组织体能状态评分和转移的存在(多变量p < 0.001)。一个简单的评分,其中还包括年龄和性别,能够在SIREC试验中令人满意地将预后差、中等和相对较好的患者区分开来。对于预后差的组,与近距离放射治疗相比,吞咽困难调整后的生存期差异为23天,有利于支架置入(77天对54天,p = 0.16)。对于其他预后组,近距离放射治疗导致更好的吞咽困难调整后的生存期。
一个简单的预后评分可能有助于识别预后差的患者,在这些患者中支架置入至少与近距离放射治疗等效。如果进一步验证,该评分可为食管癌患者姑息治疗的选择提供一个基于证据的工具。