AIDS. 1992 Apr;6(4):421-6.
To evaluate the risk of developing AIDS and to identify early markers of disease progression in injecting drug users (IDU).
Prospective study.
Sixteen centres throughout Italy.
PATIENTS, PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred and sixty-eight IDU for whom it was possible to estimate the date of HIV seroconversion.
Progression to AIDS.
Twenty-six subjects developed AIDS during a median follow-up period of 42 months. The risk of developing AIDS was 21% within 7 years following seroconversion. Age greater than 25 years at seroconversion was associated with more rapid disease progression. Progression was similar for men and women. Continued drug injection did not accelerate progression to AIDS. Among the laboratory markers studied, CD4+ cell count at the first HIV-positive test was the best predictor of disease progression. Results were confirmed using multivariate analysis.
Our findings indicate the importance of the role played by age in accelerated disease progression, which may be determined by a more rapid decline in CD4+ cell number in older HIV-infected IDU.
评估注射吸毒者（IDU）患艾滋病的风险，并确定疾病进展的早期标志物。
前瞻性研究。
意大利全国16个中心。
患者、参与者：468名IDU，其HIV血清转化日期可估算。
进展为艾滋病。
在中位随访期42个月内，26名受试者发展为艾滋病。血清转化后7年内患艾滋病的风险为21%。血清转化时年龄大于25岁与疾病进展更快相关。男性和女性的进展情况相似。持续注射毒品并未加速进展为艾滋病。在所研究的实验室标志物中，首次HIV检测呈阳性时的CD4+细胞计数是疾病进展的最佳预测指标。多因素分析证实了结果。
我们的研究结果表明年龄在加速疾病进展中所起作用的重要性，这可能是由老年HIV感染IDU中CD4+细胞数量更快下降所决定的。
