Chapin F S, Sturm M, Serreze M C, McFadden J P, Key J R, Lloyd A H, McGuire A D, Rupp T S, Lynch A H, Schimel J P, Beringer J, Chapman W L, Epstein H E, Euskirchen E S, Hinzman L D, Jia G, Ping C-L, Tape K D, Thompson C D C, Walker D A, Welker J M
Institute of Arctic Biology; University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
Science. 2005 Oct 28;310(5748):657-60. doi: 10.1126/science.1117368. Epub 2005 Sep 22.
A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.
预测地球未来气候状态的一个主要挑战是理解改变温室气体强迫的反馈机制。在此,我们综合了阿拉斯加北极地区的实地数据,结果表明,夏季地表反照率的变化对近期高纬度地区的变暖趋势有显著贡献。阿拉斯加北极地区明显的夏季陆地变暖与无雪季节的延长相关,这使得当地大气加热每十年增加约3瓦/平方米(幅度与大气二氧化碳浓度翻倍后几十年内预期的区域加热幅度相似)。灌木和树木扩张的当前趋势若持续下去,可能会使这种大气加热进一步放大两到七倍。