Weldegebriel Habtu T, Gunn George J, Stott Alistair W
Land Economy and Environment Research Group, Scottish Agricultural College, King's Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, Scotland EH9 3JG, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2009 Jan 1;88(1):49-56. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2008.07.001. Epub 2008 Oct 19.
In this paper we evaluated the distributional effects on actors in the milk market of a hypothetical programme to eradicate bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) from the Scottish dairy herd. With this in mind, we applied an economic welfare methodology which utilizes data on price, on output quantity, on elasticities of supply and demand and on simulated cost and yield effects of an eradication programme. Our analysis is based on Markov-chain Monte Carlo simulation of BVD spread in the dairy herd. We found that consequent upon the eradication of the disease milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas milk price received by farmers fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around pound11 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds gained around pound39 million whereas producers with un-infected herds lost around pound2 million in discounted surplus. On balance, however, the eradication programme generated around pound 47 million in discounted economic gain for Scotland. We found that the results are sensitive to changes in yield gains made by owners of the infected herd.
在本文中，我们评估了一项假设的从苏格兰奶牛群中根除牛病毒性腹泻（BVD）计划对牛奶市场参与者的分配效应。考虑到这一点，我们应用了一种经济福利方法，该方法利用了价格、产量、供求弹性以及根除计划的模拟成本和产量效应的数据。我们的分析基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟奶牛群中BVD的传播情况。我们发现，根除该疾病后，苏格兰所有规模牛群的每头奶牛产奶量都有所增加，而农民获得的牛奶价格却下降了。因此，牛奶消费者获得了约1100万英镑的贴现经济剩余，感染牛群的生产者获得了约3900万英镑，而未感染牛群的生产者损失了约200万英镑的贴现剩余。然而，总体而言，根除计划为苏格兰带来了约4700万英镑的贴现经济收益。我们发现，结果对感染牛群所有者产奶量增加的变化很敏感。
