McMeekin T A, Ross T, Olley J
Department of Agricultural Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Int J Food Microbiol. 1992 Jan-Feb;15(1-2):13-32. doi: 10.1016/0168-1605(92)90132-m.
Predictive microbiology offers an alternative to traditional microbiological assessment of food quality and safety. The concept is that a detailed knowledge of the microbial ecology of a food product can be expressed as a mathematical model to enable objective evaluation of the effect of processing, storage and distribution operations on microbial development. Experience to date indicates the need initially to derive a mathematical model in laboratory studies, to validate the model in food products and to incorporate the information into monitoring devices. These may be chemical or physical indicators or electronic integrators or loggers. To enable a correct decision on quality or safety, it is essential that the response of the monitoring device to environmental changes mimics exactly that of the organism of concern. Most monitoring devices currently available record temperature history, but not other environmental factors that influence growth and that, in some circumstances, change during storage. The next generation of monitoring devices may be required to monitor several parameters to take full advantage of increasingly accurate and sophisticated models.
预测微生物学为传统的食品质量和安全微生物评估提供了一种替代方法。其概念是，食品的微生物生态学详细知识可以表示为数学模型，以便客观评估加工、储存和分销操作对微生物生长的影响。迄今为止的经验表明，最初需要在实验室研究中推导数学模型，在食品中验证该模型，并将信息纳入监测设备。这些设备可以是化学或物理指标、电子积分器或记录器。为了对质量或安全做出正确决策，监测设备对环境变化的响应必须与所关注的生物体的响应完全一致。目前大多数可用的监测设备记录温度历史，但不记录影响生长且在某些情况下在储存期间会发生变化的其他环境因素。可能需要下一代监测设备来监测多个参数，以充分利用日益精确和复杂的模型。
