最坏情况的地方病混合模型的R0界限。
R0 bounds for worst-case endemic mixing models.
作者信息
Kaplan E H
机构信息
Yale School of Organization and Management, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520.
出版信息
Math Biosci. 1992 Jun;110(1):131-2. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(92)90019-s.
PMID:1623294
Abstract
Upper and lower bounds are presented for the worst endemic prevalence possible in nonrandom mixing models. The bounds require only the value of the reproductive number R0 for the corresponding homogeneous epidemic model. For R0 values of 4 or larger, the difference between the upper and lower bounds on the worst-case prevalence is at most five percentage points.
摘要
给出了非随机混合模型中可能出现的最坏地方病流行率的上下界。这些界限仅需要相应均匀流行模型的繁殖数R0的值。对于R0值为4或更大的情况，最坏情况流行率的上下界之间的差异最多为五个百分点。
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