Busenberg S, van den Driessche P
Department of Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College, Claremont, CA 91711.
J Math Biol. 1990;28(3):257-70. doi: 10.1007/BF00178776.
An S----I----R----S epidemiological model with vital dynamics in a population of varying size is discussed. A complete global analysis is given which uses a new result to establish the nonexistence of periodic solutions. Results are discussed in terms of three explicit threshold parameters which respectively govern the increase of the total population, the existence and stability of an endemic proportion equilibrium and the growth of the infective population. These lead to two distinct concepts of disease eradication which involve the total number of infectives and their proportion in the population.
讨论了一个具有生命动态的、人口规模可变的人群中的S----I----R----S流行病学模型。给出了一个完整的全局分析,该分析使用一个新结果来确定周期解不存在。根据三个明确的阈值参数讨论了结果,这三个参数分别控制总人口的增长、地方病比例平衡的存在和稳定性以及感染人群的增长。这些导致了两种不同的疾病根除概念,它们涉及感染者的总数及其在人群中的比例。