Augustin J-C, Zuliani V, Cornu M, Guillier L
Ecole Nationale Vétérinaire d'Alfort, Maisons-Alfort, France.
J Appl Microbiol. 2005;99(5):1019-42. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2672.2005.02710.x.
To evaluate the performances of models predicting the growth rate or the growth probability of Listeria monocytogenes in food.
Cardinal and square root type models including or not interactions between environmental factors and probability models were evaluated for their ability to describe the behaviour of L. monocytogenes in liquid dairy products, cheese, meat and seafood products. Models excluding interactions seemed sufficient to predict the growth rate of L. monocytogenes. However, the accurate prediction of growth/no-growth limits needed to take interactions into account. A complete and a simplified form (preservatives deducted) of a new cardinal model including interactions and parameter values were suggested to predict confidence limits for the growth rate of L. monocytogenes in food. This model could also be used for the growth probability prediction.
The new cardinal model including interactions was efficient to predict confidence limits for the growth rate of L. monocytogenes and its growth probability in liquid dairy products, meat and seafood products. In cheese, the model was efficient to predict the absence of growth of the pathogen.
The suggested model can be used for risk assessment and risk management concerning L. monocytogenes in dairy, meat and seafood products.
评估预测食品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌生长速率或生长概率的模型性能。
对包括或不包括环境因素之间相互作用的基数型和平方根型模型以及概率模型进行评估，以考察它们描述单核细胞增生李斯特菌在液态乳制品、奶酪、肉类和海产品中行为的能力。不考虑相互作用的模型似乎足以预测单核细胞增生李斯特菌的生长速率。然而，准确预测生长/不生长界限需要考虑相互作用。提出了一个包含相互作用和参数值的新基数模型的完整形式和简化形式（扣除防腐剂），用于预测食品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌生长速率的置信限。该模型也可用于生长概率预测。
包含相互作用的新基数模型能有效预测液态乳制品、肉类和海产品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌生长速率的置信限及其生长概率。在奶酪中，该模型能有效预测病原体不生长的情况。
所建议的模型可用于乳制品、肉类和海产品中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的风险评估和风险管理。
