Rakow Tim, Newell Ben R, Fayers Kathryn, Hersby Mette
Department of Psychology, University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2005 Sep;31(5):1088-104. doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.31.5.1088.
The authors identify and provide an integration of 3 criteria for establishing cue-search hierarchies in inferential judgment. Cues can be ranked by information value according to expected information gain (Bayesian criterion), cue-outcome correlation (correlational criterion), or ecological validity (accuracy criterion). All criteria significantly predicted information acquisition behavior; however, in 3 experiments, the most successful predictor was the correlational criterion (followed by the Bayesian). Although participants showed sensitivity to task constraints, searching for less information when it was more expensive (Experiment 1) and when under time constraints (Experiment 2), concomitant changes in the relative frequency of acquisition of cues with different information values were not observed. A rational analysis illustrates why such changes in the frequency of acquisition would be beneficial, and reasons for the failure to observe such behavior are discussed.
作者确定并整合了3条在推理判断中建立线索搜索层次结构的标准。线索可以根据预期信息增益（贝叶斯标准）、线索-结果相关性（相关标准）或生态效度（准确性标准）按信息价值进行排序。所有标准都能显著预测信息获取行为；然而，在3个实验中，最成功的预测指标是相关标准（其次是贝叶斯标准）。尽管参与者对任务限制表现出敏感性，在信息获取成本更高时（实验1）以及在时间限制下（实验2）搜索的信息更少，但未观察到不同信息价值线索获取相对频率的相应变化。一项理性分析阐明了为何获取频率的这种变化会有益，并讨论了未能观察到此类行为的原因。
