Probabilistic risk assessment for personal exposure to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Taiwanese temples.

To assess how the human exposure to airborne carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during working in or visiting a typical Taiwanese temple, we present a probabilistic risk model, appraised with reported empirical data. Two approaches are applied, one based on animal-derived benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) toxic equivalents (B[a]P(eq)) of individual PAHs and one is assumed that the potency of PAH mixtures is linked to their B[a]P level. The model integrates probabilistic exposure profiles of total-PAH and particle-bound PAH levels inside a temple from a published exploratory study with probabilistic incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) models taking into account inhalation and dermal contact pathways, to quantitatively estimate the exposure risks for three age groups of adult, adolescent, and child. Risk analysis indicates that 90% probability inhalation ILCRs for three age groups have orders of magnitude around 10(-7)--10(-6); whereas for the dermal contact ILCRs ranging from 10(-5) to 10(-4), indicating high potential cancer risk. All 90% probabilities of B[a]P- and B[a]P(eq)-based total ILCRs are larger than 10(-6), indicating unacceptable probability distributions for three age groups. Sensitivity analysis indicates that to increase the accuracy of the results efforts should focus on a better definition of probability distributions for inhalation cancer slope factor, inhalation rates, and particle-bound PAH-to-skin adherence factor. We estimate risk-based visiting frequency advice for adult, adolescent, and child to a temple ranging from 5 to 7, 17 to 23, and 48 to 65 year(-1), respectively, based on an average 3h residence time.