Chen Szu-Chich, Liao Chung-Min
Ecotoxicological Modeling Center, Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 10617 ROC.
Sci Total Environ. 2006 Jul 31;366(1):112-23. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2005.08.047. Epub 2005 Nov 22.
To assess how the human exposure to environmental carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollution sources generated from industrial, traffic and rural settings, we present a probabilistic risk model, appraised with reported empirical data. A probabilistic risk assessment framework is integrated with the potency equivalence factors (PEFs), age group-specific occupancy probability and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) approaches to quantitatively estimate the exposure risk for three age groups of adults, children, and infants. The benzo[a]pyrene equivalents based PAH concentrations in rural, traffic, and industrial areas associated with age group-specific occupancy probability at different environmental settings are used to calculate daily exposure level through inhalation and dermal contact pathways. Risk analysis indicates that the inhalation-ILCR and dermal contact-ILCR values for adults follow a lognormal distribution with geometric mean 1.04x10(-4) and 3.85x10(-5) and geometric standard deviation 2.10 and 2.75, respectively, indicating high potential cancer risk; whereas for the infants the risk values are less than 10(-6), indicating no significant cancer risk. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the input variables of cancer slope factor and daily inhalation exposure level have the greater impact than that of body weight on the inhalation-ILCR; whereas for the dermal-ILCR, particle-bound PAH-to-skin adherence factor and daily dermal exposure level have the significant influence than that of body weight.
为了评估人类暴露于工业、交通和农村环境中产生的环境致癌多环芳烃(PAHs)污染源的情况,我们提出了一个概率风险模型,并用报告的经验数据进行了评估。一个概率风险评估框架与效能等效因子(PEFs)、特定年龄组的占用概率以及终身癌症增量风险(ILCR)方法相结合,以定量估计成人、儿童和婴儿三个年龄组的暴露风险。基于苯并[a]芘当量的农村、交通和工业区PAH浓度,结合不同环境设置下特定年龄组的占用概率,用于通过吸入和皮肤接触途径计算每日暴露水平。风险分析表明,成人的吸入-ILCR和皮肤接触-ILCR值呈对数正态分布,几何平均值分别为1.04x10(-4)和3.85x10(-5),几何标准差分别为2.10和2.75,表明潜在癌症风险较高;而婴儿的风险值小于10(-6),表明无显著癌症风险。敏感性分析表明,癌症斜率因子和每日吸入暴露水平的输入变量对吸入-ILCR的影响大于体重;而对于皮肤-ILCR,颗粒结合PAH与皮肤的粘附因子和每日皮肤暴露水平对其影响比体重显著。