Janssen P H M, Petersen A C, van der Sluijs J P, Risbey J S, Ravetz J R
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM/MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;52(6):125-31.
In the daily practice of science for policy, as experienced by governmental agencies which inform the policy and the public on the state and outlook of the environment, there is a pressing need for guidance in assessing and communicating uncertainties. This need extends beyond the quantitative assessment of uncertainties in model results, and focuses on the entire process of environmental assessment, running from problem framing towards reporting the results of the study. Using the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM/MNP) as a case, the development, structure and content of such a guidance system is highlighted. Conditions for a successful implementation of the guidance system are discussed, and some prospects for future work are outlined.
在为政策提供科学依据的日常实践中，就那些向政策制定者和公众通报环境状况及前景的政府机构的经验而言，在评估和传达不确定性方面迫切需要指导。这种需求不仅限于对模型结果中不确定性的定量评估，而是聚焦于环境评估的整个过程，从问题构建到研究结果报告。以荷兰环境评估局（RIVM/MNP）为例，突出了这样一个指导系统的开发、结构和内容。讨论了成功实施该指导系统的条件，并概述了未来工作的一些前景。
