Johnson Glen D, Eidson Millicent, Schmit Kathryn, Ellis April, Kulldorff Martin
Zoonoses Program, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY 12237, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2006 Jan 15;163(2):171-80. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwj023. Epub 2005 Nov 23.
The risk of becoming a West Nile virus case in New York State, excluding New York City, was evaluated for persons whose town of residence was proximal to spatial clusters of dead American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos). Weekly clusters were delineated for June-October 2002 by using both the binomial spatial scan statistic and kernel density smoothing. The relative risk of a human case was estimated for different spatial-temporal exposure definitions after adjusting for population density and age distribution using Poisson regression, adjusting for week and geographic region, and conducting Cox proportional hazards modeling, where the week that a human case was identified was treated as the failure time and baseline hazard was stratified by region. The risk of becoming a West Nile virus case was positively associated with living in towns proximal to dead crow clusters. The highest risk was consistently for towns associated with a cluster in the current or prior 1-2 weeks. Weaker, but positive associations were found for towns associated with a cluster in just the 1-2 prior weeks, indicating an ability to predict onset in a timely fashion.
针对居住在纽约州（不包括纽约市）且其所在城镇靠近死亡美国乌鸦（短嘴鸦）空间聚集区的人群，评估了感染西尼罗河病毒的风险。通过使用二项式空间扫描统计量和核密度平滑法，划定了2002年6月至10月期间的每周聚集区。在使用泊松回归调整人口密度和年龄分布、调整周数和地理区域，并进行Cox比例风险建模后，针对不同的时空暴露定义估计了人类感染病例的相对风险，其中将确认人类病例的周数视为失效时间，并按区域对基线风险进行分层。感染西尼罗河病毒的风险与居住在靠近死亡乌鸦聚集区的城镇呈正相关。风险最高的始终是与当前或前1 - 2周的聚集区相关的城镇。对于仅在前1 - 2周与聚集区相关的城镇，发现了较弱但呈正相关的关联，这表明有能力及时预测发病情况。
