Tuomisto Jouni T, Tainio Marko
Centre for Environmental Health Risk Analysis, National Public Health Institute (KTL), PO Box 95, FI-70701, Finland.
BMC Public Health. 2005 Nov 25;5:123. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-5-123.
Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems.
We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones.
We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50-70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies.
Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.
交通拥堵正迅速成为城市发展的最重要障碍。此外，交通还带来了重大的健康、环境和经济问题。尽管如此，汽车对于现代社会的运转至关重要。大多数可持续交通解决方案的提议都面临重大的政治反对、经济后果或技术问题。
我们在一个研究较少的领域——出行聚合方面进行了决策分析，并从两个不同利益相关者，即乘客和社会的角度研究决策。我们对复合交通的影响和潜力进行了建模，复合交通是一种针对赫尔辛基大都市区的假设性大规模需求响应型公共交通系统，在该系统中，一个集中式系统会在线收集所有出行需求的信息，将具有相同起点和终点的出行合并到八座或四座的公共车辆中，然后将出行指令传输到乘客的手机上。
我们在此表明，在一个拥有百万居民的城市地区，出行聚合通常可将汽车交通对健康、环境和其他有害影响降低50% - 70%，并且如果实施，可吸引约一半的汽车乘客，而且在广泛的运营范围内无需公共补贴。
复合交通在城市决策中为识别城市交通问题的新解决方案提供了新的自由度。
