Chen Chong, Shao Li-guo, Xu Ling, Shang Jin-cheng
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin Province, 130024, China.
Environ Monit Assess. 2009 Oct;157(1-4):169-77. doi: 10.1007/s10661-008-0525-x. Epub 2008 Oct 11.
Predicting environmental impacts is essential when performing an environmental assessment on urban transport planning. System dynamics (SD) is usually used to solve complex nonlinear problems. In this study, we utilized system dynamics (SD) to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with urban transport planning in Jilin City, China with respect to the local economy, society, transport, the environment and resources. To accomplish this, we generated simulation models comprising interrelated subsystems designed to utilize changes in the economy, society, road construction, changes in the number of vehicles, the capacity of the road network capacity, nitrogen oxides emission, traffic noise, land used for road construction and fuel consumption associated with traffic to estimate dynamic trends in the environmental impacts associated with Jilin's transport planning. Two simulation scenarios were then analyzed comparatively. The results of this study indicated that implementation of Jilin transport planning would improve the current urban traffic conditions and boost the local economy and development while benefiting the environment in Jilin City. In addition, comparative analysis of the two scenarios provided additional information that can be used to aid in scientific decision-making regarding which aspects of the transport planning to implement in Jilin City. This study demonstrates that our application of the SD method, which is referred to as the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), is feasible for use in urban transport planning.
在对城市交通规划进行环境评估时，预测环境影响至关重要。系统动力学（SD）通常用于解决复杂的非线性问题。在本研究中，我们利用系统动力学（SD）来评估中国吉林市城市交通规划对当地经济、社会、交通、环境和资源的环境影响。为此，我们生成了包含相互关联子系统的模拟模型，这些子系统旨在利用经济、社会、道路建设、车辆数量变化、道路网络容量、氮氧化物排放、交通噪音、道路建设用地以及与交通相关的燃料消耗等方面的变化，来估计吉林交通规划相关环境影响的动态趋势。然后对两种模拟情景进行了比较分析。本研究结果表明，吉林交通规划的实施将改善当前城市交通状况，促进当地经济发展，同时有利于吉林市的环境。此外，对两种情景的比较分析提供了更多信息，可用于辅助关于吉林市交通规划实施哪些方面的科学决策。本研究表明，我们将SD方法应用于战略环境评估（SEA），在城市交通规划中是可行的。
