Heckerman D E, Horvitz E J, Nathwani B N
Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles.
Methods Inf Med. 1992 Jun;31(2):90-105.
Pathfinder is an expert system that assists surgical pathologists with the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases. The program is one of a growing number of normative expert systems that use probability and decision theory to acquire, represent, manipulate, and explain uncertain medical knowledge. In this article, we describe Pathfinder and our research in uncertain-reasoning paradigms that was stimulated by the development of the program. We discuss limitations with early decision-theoretic methods for reasoning under uncertainty and our initial attempts to use non-decision-theoretic methods. Then, we describe experimental and theoretical results that directed us to return to reasoning methods based in probability and decision theory.
“探路者”是一个专家系统，可协助外科病理学家诊断淋巴结疾病。该程序是越来越多的规范性专家系统之一，这些系统使用概率和决策理论来获取、表示、处理和解释不确定的医学知识。在本文中，我们描述了“探路者”以及受该程序开发启发而在不确定推理范式方面开展的研究。我们讨论了早期用于不确定性推理的决策理论方法的局限性，以及我们最初尝试使用非决策理论方法的情况。然后，我们描述了引导我们回归基于概率和决策理论的推理方法的实验和理论结果。
