Pollard Richard
Statistics Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407, USA.
J Sports Sci. 2006 Mar;24(3):231-40. doi: 10.1080/02640410500141836.
Home advantage plays an important part in determining the result of a game of football. Its existence and magnitude is well documented in England, but its causes are still not completely understood. In this study, reliable estimates of home advantage are calculated for the domestic leagues of all countries of Europe and South America, as well as a selection of countries from other continents. The results of all games during the last six seasons are used for each of these 72 countries. In Europe, home advantage in the Balkan countries, especially Bosnia and Albania, is much higher than average. It is generally lower than average in northern Europe, from the Baltic republics, through Scandinavia to the British Isles. In South America, home advantage is high in the Andean countries and lower elsewhere, especially in Uruguay. Home advantage is not unusually high or low in any of the countries from other continents. A multiple regression model for the 51 European countries, which included variables for geographical location, crowd effects and travel, accounted for 76.7% of the variability in home advantage. The large geographical variations can be interpreted in terms of territoriality being a contributing factor to home advantage.
主场优势在决定一场足球比赛的结果中起着重要作用。其存在及程度在英格兰有充分记载，但导致其产生的原因仍未被完全理解。在本研究中，对欧洲和南美洲所有国家以及其他大洲一些国家的国内联赛的主场优势进行了可靠估计。这72个国家中的每一个国家都使用了过去六个赛季所有比赛的结果。在欧洲，巴尔干国家，尤其是波斯尼亚和阿尔巴尼亚的主场优势远高于平均水平。在北欧，从波罗的海共和国，经斯堪的纳维亚半岛到不列颠群岛，主场优势通常低于平均水平。在南美洲，安第斯国家的主场优势较高，其他地方则较低，尤其是在乌拉圭。其他大洲的任何国家的主场优势都没有异常高或低的情况。一个针对51个欧洲国家的多元回归模型，其中包括地理位置、观众效应和旅行等变量，解释了主场优势变异性的76.7%。巨大的地理差异可以从领地意识是主场优势的一个促成因素的角度来解释。
