Morse Steven B, Wu Samuel S, Ma Changxing, Ariet Mario, Resnick Michael, Roth Jeffrey
Department of Pediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Pediatrics. 2006 Jan;117(1):e106-12. doi: 10.1542/peds.2005-1286.
The purpose of this study is to provide a race- and gender-specific model for predicting 1-year survival rates for extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants by using population-based data.
Birth and death certificates were analyzed for all children (N = 5076) with birth weights between 300 g and 1000 g who were born in Florida between 1996 and 2000. Semiparametric, multivariate, logistic regression analysis was used to model 1-year survival probabilities as a function of birth weight, gestational age, mother's race, and infant's gender. Estimated survival rates among different race/gender groups were compared by using odds ratios (ORs).
One-year survival rates for 5076 ELBW infants born between 1996 and 2000 did not change during the 5-year period (60-62%). The survival rate at < or = 500 g was < or = 14% (n = 716). Survival rates at 501 to 600 g and 601 to 700 g were 36% and 62%, respectively. The survival rate reached > 85% for infants of > 800 g. Modeling indicated a survival advantage for female infants, compared with male infants (OR: 1.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.5-1.9), and for black infants, compared with white infants (OR: 1.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-1.5). Black female infants had 2.1 greater odds of survival than did white male infants.
This population-based study highlights the significant race and gender differences in 1-year survival rates for ELBW infants, as well as the interactions of these 2 factors. These findings can assist obstetricians and neonatologists not only in the care of ELBW infants but also in frank discussions with families.
本研究旨在利用基于人群的数据,提供一个针对种族和性别的模型,以预测极低出生体重(ELBW)婴儿的1年生存率。
对1996年至2000年在佛罗里达州出生的所有出生体重在300克至1000克之间的儿童(N = 5076)的出生和死亡证明进行分析。采用半参数多变量逻辑回归分析,将1年生存概率建模为出生体重、胎龄、母亲种族和婴儿性别的函数。通过比值比(OR)比较不同种族/性别组的估计生存率。
1996年至2000年出生的5076名ELBW婴儿的1年生存率在5年期间没有变化(60%-62%)。出生体重≤500克的婴儿生存率≤14%(n = 716)。出生体重在501至600克和601至700克的婴儿生存率分别为36%和62%。出生体重>800克的婴儿生存率超过85%。模型显示,与男婴相比,女婴有生存优势(OR:1.7;95%置信区间:1.5-1.9);与白人婴儿相比,黑人婴儿有生存优势(OR:1.3;95%置信区间:1.1-1.5)。黑人女婴的生存几率比白人男婴高2.1倍。
这项基于人群的研究突出了ELBW婴儿1年生存率方面显著的种族和性别差异以及这两个因素的相互作用。这些发现不仅有助于产科医生和新生儿科医生护理ELBW婴儿,也有助于与家庭进行坦诚的讨论。