Wimo A, Jonsson L, Winblad B
Division of Geriatric Epidemiology, Neurotec, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Dement Geriatr Cogn Disord. 2006;21(3):175-81. doi: 10.1159/000090733. Epub 2006 Jan 9.
Dementia disorders are today considered to be a major driver of costs in health care and social systems and worrying estimates of future dementia prevalence have been presented. It is of great interest for policy makers to have an estimate of dementia disorders' contribution to global social and health care costs, particularly in light of the demographic prognoses. The worldwide costs of dementia were estimated from prevalence figures for different regions, and cost-of-illness studies from key countries using a model based on the relationship between direct costs of care per demented and the gross domestic product per capita in each country. The worldwide direct costs for dementia in 2003 are estimated at 156 billion USD in the main scenario based on a worldwide prevalence of 27.7 million demented persons (sensitivity analysis: 129-159 billion USD). Ninety-two percent of the costs are found in the advanced economies with 38% of the prevalence. Although there are several sources of uncertainty, it is obvious that the worldwide costs are substantial and the expected increase in elderly people in the developing countries presents a great challenge.
如今，痴呆症被视为医疗保健和社会系统成本的主要驱动因素，并且已有令人担忧的未来痴呆症患病率预估。对于政策制定者而言，估算痴呆症对全球社会和医疗保健成本的贡献极具意义，尤其是鉴于人口统计学预测。根据不同地区的患病率数据以及主要国家的疾病成本研究，利用基于每位痴呆患者护理直接成本与各国人均国内生产总值之间关系的模型，估算了全球痴呆症成本。在主要情景下，基于全球2770万痴呆患者的患病率，2003年全球痴呆症的直接成本估计为1560亿美元（敏感性分析：1290 - 1590亿美元）。92%的成本出现在发达经济体，而这些经济体的患病率占38%。尽管存在多种不确定性来源，但全球成本之高显而易见，而且发展中国家老年人口的预期增长带来了巨大挑战。
