Smoking rates and topography predict adolescent smoking cessation following treatment with nicotine replacement therapy.

Establishing measurement invariance of tobacco addiction among adolescents remains challenging. In adult smoking cessation trials, poor outcome is predicted by high cigarette consumption and large puff volume at baseline. We examined the predictive value of pretreatment smoking rates and topography variables for abstinence outcomes among 66 adolescents enrolled in a 3-month smoking cessation trial using nicotine replacement and cognitive behavioral therapy. Pretreatment variables included cigarettes per day (CPD), puff volume, puff duration, and several youth-adapted Fagerström-derived questionnaire scores. Outcome measures included prolonged abstinence at end of treatment and point-prevalent abstinence 3 months after the end of the trial. Logistic regression controlling for treatment group showed that increases in baseline CPD (odds ratio, 1.438; 95% confidence interval, 1.051-1.967) and average puff volume (odds ratio, 1.168; 95% confidence interval, 1.030-1.326) predicted continued smoking at the end of treatment. Puff volume (P=0.013), but not CPD, predicted abstinence at the 3-month follow-up. None of the youth-adapted Fagerström questionnaires predicted outcome on either abstinence measure. If confirmed in a larger sample, our findings suggest that puff topography, and possibly CPD, might predict cessation outcome better than Fagerström scores in adolescent smokers.