Zhang Quanfa, Justice Christopher O, Jiang Mingxi, Brunner Jake, Wilkie David S
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2006 Mar;114(1-3):107-21. doi: 10.1007/s10661-006-2015-3. Epub 2006 Feb 25.
This paper examines the vulnerability of the Congo Basin's forests through a GIS platform, taking into consideration the variables of population growth, road density, logging concession, and forest fragmentation. The assessment indicates that the forests will continue to shrink towards the interior over the next 50 years. Current contiguous forests will fragment into three large blocks, including one on the west side of the Congo River and two in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while a large number of small forest patches will retain in the periphery of the large blocks. The study shows that integrated GIS assessment of the driving forces of tropical deforestation can shed light on the future forest distribution and provide a tool to address the broader implications of social and economic development for tropical deforestation.
本文通过地理信息系统（GIS）平台研究了刚果盆地森林的脆弱性，同时考虑了人口增长、道路密度、伐木特许权和森林碎片化等变量。评估表明，在未来50年里，森林将继续向内陆地区萎缩。目前连片的森林将分裂成三大块，其中一块位于刚果河西侧，另外两块在刚果民主共和国境内，同时大量小森林斑块将保留在大块森林的周边地区。研究表明，对热带森林砍伐驱动力进行综合GIS评估能够揭示未来森林分布情况，并提供一种工具，以应对社会经济发展对热带森林砍伐产生的更广泛影响。
