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天气对希腊雅典呼吸道感染的影响。

Weather impacts on respiratory infections in Athens, Greece.

作者信息

Nastos Panagiotis T, Matzarakis Andreas

机构信息

Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.

出版信息

Int J Biometeorol. 2006 Jul;50(6):358-69. doi: 10.1007/s00484-006-0031-1. Epub 2006 Apr 5.

Abstract

In this study the contribution of meteorological parameters to the total variability of respiratory infections (RI) is analysed. For this purpose, data on the daily numbers of general practitioner (GP) consultations for RI during the year 2002 were used. This dataset has been compiled by the Local Health Service in the surroundings of Athens, Greece (Acharnes city). The meteorological data obtained by the Meteorological Station of the National Observatory of Athens comprise daily values of mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, air temperature range, relative humidity, absolute humidity, sunshine, surface atmospheric pressure, wind speed, as well as day-to-day changes of these parameters. Furthermore, the following biometeorological parameters and thermal indices were also evaluated: mean radiant temperature (T (mrt)), predicted mean vote (PMV), physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and standard effective temperature (SET*) as well as their day-to-day changes. First, the relationship between every meteorological-biometeorological parameter and consultations for RI was examined by applying the Pearson Chi-Square Test (chi (2)) to the data of the 25 compiled contingency tables. In the second stage, the application of generalised linear models (GLM) with Poisson distribution to the data revealed how much the weather variability leads to statistically important changes in consultations for RI. The results of this study contribute to the evidence that there is an association between weather conditions and the number of GP consultations for RI. More specifically, the influence of air temperature and absolute humidity on consultations on the same day is weaker than the lag effect ( approximately 2 weeks) related to cold existence and absolute humidity, while a strong wind during the preceding 3 days drives a peak in GP consultations.

摘要

在本研究中,分析了气象参数对呼吸道感染(RI)总变异性的贡献。为此,使用了2002年期间全科医生(GP)因RI进行会诊的每日数据。该数据集由希腊雅典周边地区(阿查尼斯市)的地方卫生服务机构汇编而成。雅典国家天文台气象站获得的气象数据包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、气温范围、相对湿度、绝对湿度、日照、地面大气压力、风速以及这些参数的逐日变化。此外,还评估了以下生物气象参数和热指标:平均辐射温度(T(mrt))、预测平均投票数(PMV)、生理等效温度(PET)和标准有效温度(SET*)及其逐日变化。首先,通过对25个汇编的列联表数据应用Pearson卡方检验(chi(2)),研究了每个气象 - 生物气象参数与RI会诊之间的关系。在第二阶段,将具有泊松分布的广义线性模型(GLM)应用于数据,揭示了天气变异性在多大程度上导致RI会诊中具有统计学意义的变化。本研究结果为天气状况与因RI进行的GP会诊数量之间存在关联提供了证据。更具体地说,气温和绝对湿度对当日会诊的影响弱于与寒冷存在和绝对湿度相关的滞后效应(约2周),而前3天的强风会导致GP会诊出现峰值。

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