Vollmer Robin T
Department of Laboratory Medicine, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
Am J Clin Pathol. 2006 Mar;125(3):336-42.
This article introduces the use of Bayes probability rule to calculate age and serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-specific positive predictive values (PPVs) for prostate cancer. The PPV is the conditional probability of having prostate cancer, given a value of PSA and a particular age group. The formulation uses values of sensitivity obtained from previously reported studies of more than 2,700 men with prostate cancer, and it uses values of specificity obtained from previously reported studies of more than 99,000 men without prostate cancer. The formulation also introduces the use of a population-based and age-specific probability of prostate cancer, and for this it relies on the National Cancer Institute-sponsored Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data. The Bayes PPV suggests that in younger men, cut points defining an elevated PSA level should be raised rather than lowered. The Bayes formulation also provides estimates of the PPV for narrow intervals of PSA, and these tabulated results may provide useful guidelines for the implications of serum PSA levels at specific age groups.
本文介绍了使用贝叶斯概率规则来计算前列腺癌的年龄及血清前列腺特异性抗原（PSA）特异性阳性预测值（PPV）。PPV是在给定PSA值和特定年龄组的情况下患前列腺癌的条件概率。该公式使用了从先前对2700多名前列腺癌男性的研究中获得的敏感性值，并使用了从先前对99000多名无前列腺癌男性的研究中获得的特异性值。该公式还引入了基于人群和特定年龄的前列腺癌概率，为此它依赖于美国国家癌症研究所资助的监测、流行病学和最终结果数据。贝叶斯PPV表明，在年轻男性中，定义PSA水平升高的切点应提高而非降低。贝叶斯公式还提供了PSA狭窄区间的PPV估计值，这些列表结果可为特定年龄组血清PSA水平的影响提供有用的指导。
