Shone Scott M, Curriero Frank C, Lesser Cyrus R, Glass Gregory E
W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
J Med Entomol. 2006 Mar;43(2):393-402. doi: 10.1603/0022-2585(2006)043[0393:cpdoas]2.0.co;2.
Numerous studies have investigated the role of weather on insect species. For mosquitoes, these studies have yielded mixed results. Although it is clear that weather impacts mosquito population dynamics, these investigations have failed to accurately characterize their fluctuations. We use a novel graphical method to examine large numbers of meteorological aggregations of varying lengths and lags simultaneously to establish relationships between these summary variables and mosquito counts, to gain a better understanding of the weather effects. Poisson regression models were developed to characterize the population dynamics of Aedes sollicitans (Walker) by using meteorological data and a 34-yr set of daily mosquito count data. The models accurately characterize mosquito dynamics over time and space. The aggregated meteorological variables included in the model were lowest minimum tides between days 27 and 14 before trapping, total precipitation between days 22 and 9, total precipitation on day 1 and the day of trapping, cooling degree-days on day 0, average minimum relative humidity between days 28 and 9, lowest stream flow from day 11 to day 0, and lowest minimum temperature between days 28 and 13.
许多研究调查了天气对昆虫物种的作用。对于蚊子而言,这些研究结果不一。尽管天气对蚊子种群动态的影响显而易见,但这些调查未能准确描述其波动情况。我们使用一种新颖的图形方法,同时检查大量不同长度和滞后时间的气象汇总数据,以建立这些汇总变量与蚊子数量之间的关系,从而更好地理解天气的影响。通过使用气象数据和一组长达34年的每日蚊子数量数据,建立了泊松回归模型来描述骚扰伊蚊(沃克)的种群动态。这些模型准确地描述了蚊子随时间和空间的动态变化。模型中纳入的汇总气象变量包括诱捕前第27天至第14天之间的最低低潮位、第22天至第9天之间的总降水量、诱捕当天和第1天的总降水量、第0天的冷却度日、第28天至第9天之间的平均最低相对湿度、第11天至第0天的最低河流流量以及第28天至第13天之间的最低最低温度。