Tan Hongzhuan, Ping Weiwei, Yang Tubao, Li Shuoqi, Liu Aizhong, Zhou Jia, Groves Jamila, Sun Zhenqiu
School of Public Health, Central South University Xiangya Road, Changsha, Hunan, 410008, People's Republic of China.
Eur J Public Health. 2007 Apr;17(2):206-10. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckl067. Epub 2006 May 4.
Although many previous epidemiological studies have reported the incidence of diseases, mortality rate and economic losses after natural disasters, none of these studies has been comprehensive enough. Our aim was to establish a synthetic evaluation model (SEM) that can be used to analyze flood hazards.
Initial evaluation indicators were selected using systematic and literature data analysis. These indicators were tested with single or multiple variable analyses. Final evaluation indicators and their weights were determined using the Delphi procedure. We established a SEM of flood hazards using the hierarchy method and tested the model using jack-knife analysis.
The SEM on flood hazards consists of 6 first-rank indicators and 24 second-rank indicators. First-rank indicators were: direct casualties (w = 0.2123), the increased incidence and prevalence rate of the disease (w = 0.1715), excess mortality rate (w = 0.1745), mental injury (w = 0.1038), epidemic focus expansion (w = 0.1572) and economic loss (w = 0.1807). The agreement of the model reached 98.2% tested with the jack-knife analysis.
A SEM of flood hazards was established with an agreement of 98.2%, which can be used to evaluate the hazards, and assist public health-care workers provide appropriate flood disaster management.
尽管此前许多流行病学研究都报告了自然灾害后的疾病发病率、死亡率和经济损失，但这些研究都不够全面。我们的目的是建立一个可用于分析洪水灾害的综合评估模型（SEM）。
通过系统和文献数据分析选择初始评估指标。这些指标通过单变量或多变量分析进行测试。使用德尔菲法确定最终评估指标及其权重。我们使用层次分析法建立了洪水灾害的SEM，并使用留一法分析对模型进行了测试。
洪水灾害的SEM由6个一级指标和24个二级指标组成。一级指标为：直接伤亡（w = 0.2123）、疾病发病率和患病率增加（w = 0.1715）、超额死亡率（w = 0.1745）、心理伤害（w = 0.1038）、疫源地扩大（w = 0.1572）和经济损失（w = 0.1807）。经留一法分析测试，模型的一致性达到98.2%。
建立了一致性为98.2%的洪水灾害SEM，可用于评估灾害，并协助公共卫生工作者提供适当的洪水灾害管理。
