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运用改良德尔菲法识别并评估幼儿家庭伤害风险及预防方法。

Use of the modified Delphi technique to identify and rate home injury hazard risks and prevention methods for young children.

作者信息

Katcher M L, Meister A N, Sorkness C A, Staresinic A G, Pierce S E, Goodman B M, Peterson N M, Hatfield P M, Schirmer J A

机构信息

Wisconsin Division of Public Health and University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Department of Pediatrics, Madison, WI, USA.

出版信息

Inj Prev. 2006 Jun;12(3):189-94. doi: 10.1136/ip.2005.010504.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

For children aged 1-5 years, the authors used the Delphi method to determine (1) the most important injury hazards in each area of the home; (2) the most important injury prevention behaviors; and (3) feasible and efficacious safety devices and behaviors to reduce injury risks.

DESIGN

The authors used a modified Delphi method to prioritize home injury hazards for children 1-5 years of age. The Delphi method is an indirect, anonymous, iterative process aimed at achieving consensus among experts; in this study, the authors queried key informants electronically. Thirty four key informants, primarily from the United States, participated in at least one of the three rounds of questionnaires. Responses were submitted by email or fax. Participants identified, rated, and ranked home injury hazards and prevention methods.

RESULTS

The overall response rate for each survey ranged from 82% to 97%. Initially, 330 unique hazards and prevention behaviors/devices were identified in seven areas of the home. The 126 home injury hazards were rated based on frequency, severity, and preventability of injury; and the 204 behaviors and devices were rated by efficacy and feasibility. These experts rated firearms and pools as the most significant hazards, and smoke alarms and safe water temperature as the most important preventions.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified Delphi method of consensus was useful to prioritize home injury hazards and prevention methods for children under the age of 6 years.

摘要

目的

对于1 - 5岁的儿童,作者采用德尔菲法来确定:(1)家庭各区域最重要的伤害危险因素;(2)最重要的伤害预防行为;(3)降低伤害风险的可行且有效的安全装置及行为。

设计

作者采用改良的德尔菲法对1 - 5岁儿童家庭伤害危险因素进行优先级排序。德尔菲法是一种旨在专家间达成共识的间接、匿名、迭代过程;在本研究中,作者通过电子方式询问关键信息提供者。34名主要来自美国的关键信息提供者参与了三轮问卷中的至少一轮。回复通过电子邮件或传真提交。参与者识别、评估并对家庭伤害危险因素及预防方法进行排序。

结果

每次调查的总体回复率在82%至97%之间。最初,在家庭的七个区域识别出330种独特的危险因素及预防行为/装置。126种家庭伤害危险因素根据伤害的频率、严重程度及可预防性进行评估;204种行为及装置根据有效性和可行性进行评估。这些专家将枪支和泳池列为最显著的危险因素,将烟雾报警器和安全水温列为最重要的预防措施。

结论

改良的德尔菲共识法有助于对6岁以下儿童家庭伤害危险因素及预防方法进行优先级排序。

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