Pellet Jérôme, Schmidt Benedikt R, Fivaz Fabien, Perrin Nicolas, Grossenbacher Kurt
Laboratory for Conservation Biology, Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Biology Building, 1015, Dorigny, Switzerland.
Oecologia. 2006 Aug;149(1):65-71. doi: 10.1007/s00442-006-0432-1. Epub 2006 May 24.
Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.
实验研究已经确定了许多可能导致两栖动物数量下降的因素，然而，由于缺乏关于自然种群中补偿性密度依赖的信息，这些因素对种群水平的影响仍然未知。在此，我们研究了内在（密度依赖）和外在（气候）因素对一种树蛙（欧洲树蛙）种群动态的相对重要性，研究时间跨度为22年。对数线性密度依赖和降雨（有一个对应于发育时间的2年时间滞后）的组合解释了增长率变化的75%。围绕一个可变回归点的这种波动可能是许多两栖动物种群看似不稳定的种群统计学和非平衡动态的原因。
