Hadley Jack
The Urban Institute.
Med Care Res Rev. 2006 Aug;63(4):447-76. doi: 10.1177/1077558706288841.
This study uses national survey data from 1997, 1999, and 2002 to estimate a statistical model of the relationships between employment loss, insurance costs, and insurance coverage of nonelderly adults. Simulations based on the model suggest that the large increase in private insurance premiums (about 33 percent in constant dollars) was responsible for 3.1 of the 3.4 percentage-point drop in private insurance coverage between 2000 and 2003. Employment loss has a substantial impact on the coverage of people who lose employment, but its impact on aggregate coverage is relatively small. Expanded public coverage absorbed only about one quarter of the loss of private coverage. Controlling insurance (and medical) cost inflation is critical to expanding insurance coverage, even after the employment rate recovers.
本研究使用了1997年、1999年和2002年的全国调查数据，来估计一个关于就业损失、保险成本与非老年成年人保险覆盖范围之间关系的统计模型。基于该模型的模拟结果表明，私人保险费大幅上涨（按不变美元计算约为33%）是2000年至2003年间私人保险覆盖范围下降3.4个百分点中的3.1个百分点的原因。就业损失对失去工作的人的保险覆盖范围有重大影响，但其对总体保险覆盖范围的影响相对较小。扩大公共保险覆盖范围仅吸收了私人保险覆盖范围损失的约四分之一。即使在就业率恢复之后，控制保险（和医疗）成本通胀对于扩大保险覆盖范围也至关重要。
