Masuda Naoki, Konno Norio
Laboratory for Mathematical Neuroscience, RIKEN Brain Science Institute, 2-1, Hirosawa, Wako, Saitama 351-0198, Japan.
J Theor Biol. 2006 Nov 7;243(1):64-75. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.06.010. Epub 2006 Jun 13.
Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks underlying infection events are often much more complex than described by meanfield equations or regular lattices. In models with simple transition rules such as the SIS and SIR models, heterogeneous contact rates are known to decrease epidemic thresholds. We analyse steady states of various multi-state disease propagation models with heterogeneous contact rates. In many models, heterogeneity simply decreases epidemic thresholds. However, in models with competing pathogens and mutation, coexistence of different pathogens for small infection rates requires network-independent conditions in addition to heterogeneity in contact rates. Furthermore, models without spontaneous neighbor-independent state transitions, such as cyclically competing species, do not show heterogeneity effects.
传染病实际上由具有多个状态和复杂转换规则的模型来表示,这些规则对应于例如出生、死亡、感染、康复、疾病进展和隔离等情况。此外,感染事件背后的网络通常比平均场方程或规则晶格所描述的要复杂得多。在具有简单转换规则的模型中,如SIS和SIR模型,已知异质接触率会降低流行阈值。我们分析了具有异质接触率的各种多状态疾病传播模型的稳态。在许多模型中,异质性只是降低了流行阈值。然而,在具有竞争性病原体和突变的模型中,对于小感染率而言,不同病原体的共存除了接触率的异质性外,还需要与网络无关的条件。此外,没有自发的与邻居无关的状态转换的模型,如周期性竞争物种,不会显示出异质性效应。