Danyluk Michelle D, Harris Linda J, Schaffner Donald W
Department of Food Science and Technology, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, USA.
J Food Prot. 2006 Jul;69(7):1594-9. doi: 10.4315/0362-028x-69.7.1594.
Recent outbreaks of salmonellosis associated with raw almonds have raised awareness of this food as a vector for foodborne illness. We performed a quantitative assessment of the risk of contracting salmonellosis from consumption of raw almonds, accounting for factors that become important after almonds reach the processor. We estimated the risk associated with the consumption of raw almonds and the risk reduction associated with almonds treated with a theoretical 5-log reduction process or treated with propylene oxide using a standard commercial process. Probability distributions were chosen to describe the chance of almond contamination and the effects of storage time, storage temperature, and processing from currently available data. A beta-Poisson model for the dose-response relationship for Salmonella was obtained from published literature. The simulation estimated a 78% chance of one or more cases of salmonellosis per year from consumption of raw almonds. The application of a commercial propylene oxide treatment reduced this risk to 0.01%. Hypothetical 5-log reduction treatments with different standard deviations (+/-1, +/-0.5, +/-0.1, and +/-0) reduced the predicted yearly risk of salmonellosis to 0.69, 0.35, 0.30, and 0.21%, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of one or more U.S. cases of salmonellosis per year from consumption of raw almonds can be reduced from 78% to less than 1% by using a process achieving a 5-log reduction in Salmonella with a process standard deviation as large as 1 log unit or by using a commercial propylene oxide treatment.
近期与生杏仁相关的沙门氏菌病疫情爆发，提高了人们对这种作为食源性疾病传播媒介的食品的认识。我们对食用生杏仁感染沙门氏菌病的风险进行了定量评估，考虑了杏仁到达加工商后变得重要的因素。我们估计了食用生杏仁相关的风险，以及与采用理论上5对数减少过程处理或采用标准商业过程用环氧丙烷处理的杏仁相关的风险降低情况。根据现有数据选择概率分布来描述杏仁污染的可能性以及储存时间、储存温度和加工的影响。从已发表的文献中获得了沙门氏菌剂量反应关系的β-泊松模型。模拟估计，每年因食用生杏仁出现一例或多例沙门氏菌病的概率为78%。商业环氧丙烷处理的应用将这一风险降低到了0.01%。具有不同标准偏差（±1、±0.5、±0.1和±0）的假设5对数减少处理分别将预测的每年沙门氏菌病风险降低到0.69%、0.35%、0.30%和0.21%。这些结果表明，通过采用沙门氏菌减少5对数且过程标准偏差高达1对数单位的过程或采用商业环氧丙烷处理，每年因食用生杏仁在美国出现一例或多例沙门氏菌病的风险可从78%降低到1%以下。
